Kalshi CEO Warns US Prediction Markets Could Go Offshore

| unchainedcrypto.com
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the legal fight over US prediction markets could determine whether the industry stays in the country under federal oversight or moves offshore. The CFTC has proposed defining event contracts covering sports, politics, culture and weather as swaps. Courts remain divided: one federal appeals court has backed Kalshi’s position, while two have sided with state regulators. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review the dispute. Comments on the CFTC proposal are due within 30 days of its publication in the Federal Register. Mansour says public trading records can help identify misconduct. He reported that Kalshi received 100 whistleblower complaints within minutes of former US representative George Santos trading a contract tied to his own actions. The CFTC later found Santos manipulated the market, ordering him to pay $17,569.98 in disgorgement and a $17,500 penalty, and imposing a three-year trading ban. In a separate case, former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez agreed to pay more than $172,000 and accept a three-year ban after trading on advance access to speech text. Mansour also disputed claims that recurring, fixed-size trades inflated volume in Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets, attributing the activity to market makers. The regulatory outcome could shape the future of US prediction markets, but the developments indicate no direct price catalyst for BTC or ETH.
Neutral
The dispute concerns the regulation and location of prediction markets, not the fundamentals or supply of BTC or ETH. Although the article mentions Kalshi’s bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets, it reports no new price catalyst, change in crypto market structure or material shift in trading conditions for either asset. Short-term reactions in BTC and ETH are therefore likely to be limited, though traders may monitor any broader risk sentiment around US regulatory policy. Over the longer term, the outcome could affect where prediction-market activity operates and how event contracts are overseen, but its direct effect on BTC and ETH prices remains uncertain and indirect. The reported insider-trading enforcement cases may also reinforce expectations for stronger oversight without establishing a clear bullish or bearish signal for the cryptocurrencies.