Kalshi to launch crypto perpetual futures in the U.S.
Prediction market platform Kalshi is preparing to enter crypto trading in the United States by launching crypto perpetual futures. The Information reports the rollout is planned with bitcoin-linked contracts first.
Crypto perpetual futures let traders speculate on an asset’s price without owning it and without a fixed expiration date. Positions are kept aligned to spot via funding payments between longs and shorts. Kalshi’s plan would bring it into closer competition with Coinbase and other major exchanges that have been expanding derivatives and prediction-market offerings.
Kalshi already holds multiple Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) licenses. It recently received approval to offer margin trading, which helps support a regulated U.S. derivatives launch. The company is expected to start with token-linked perpetuals (including BTC) and could expand to other asset classes later.
The move reflects a broader convergence between prediction markets and crypto exchanges. As crypto trading volumes softened after a downturn, prediction markets saw user and investor activity rise. Platforms including Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Gemini have introduced prediction-market products, pushing companies like Kalshi to broaden their product suites.
For traders, the key takeaway is an incremental expansion of regulated venues for crypto perpetual futures, which may improve product choice and liquidity over time while increasing competition among major U.S.-accessible platforms.
Neutral
Kalshi 在美国推出 crypto perpetual futures，属于“合规衍生品供给增加”的利好叙事，但短期对价格走势的直接拉动可能有限，因此更偏中性。
短期方面：新产品通常会先带来交易渠道与订单流的迁移，而非立刻改变整体需求。市场更可能关注合约上线后的流动性、点差与资金费率表现，以及与现有平台（如 Coinbase 等）的竞争对手盘与费率策略。
中长期方面：若 Kalshi 的 CFTC 牌照与保证金交易能力带来持续的用户增长，这会强化“预测市场/交易所”业务的融合，可能逐步改善监管覆盖下的衍生品可得性。类似过去加密交易所扩展衍生品、以及监管边界放宽后，市场往往先出现交易活跃度提升，再逐步形成新均衡流动性。
整体来看，本消息对市场稳定性的影响取决于上线节奏与风险控制（杠杆、清算机制、保证金管理）。在没有更多关于规模与定价的信息前，更适合视为中性事件。