Crypto Perpetual Futures Race: Kalshi and Polymarket Target Onshore BTC

Kalshi and Polymarket are moving into crypto perpetual futures, aiming to take derivatives share from major venues like Coinbase. Kalshi, citing a report from The Information (Apr 21), plans to launch crypto perpetual futures for assets including Bitcoin. The firm already operates under multiple CFTC licenses and received approval for margin trading last month, giving it a clearer regulatory path to offer these contracts onshore. If launched, it would be Kalshi’s first product beyond its event-based binary contracts. Polymarket also announced it will offer crypto perpetual futures the same day. It posted a promo on X showing leveraged trading up to 10x across crypto and equities-style instruments, and opened an early-access waitlist at /perps. It has not yet clarified whether the perpetuals will run on its US-facing site, international site, or both. Regulation timing could accelerate adoption: CFTC Chair Michael Selig has indicated the US agency plans to formally authorize perpetuals. Meanwhile, Coinbase—after acquiring Deribit in Aug 2025—still has not launched truly open-ended perpetuals in the US. Funding context adds urgency: Kalshi was reportedly finalizing a $1B raise at a ~$22B valuation, while Polymarket was in talks for ~$400M at a ~$15B valuation. For traders, the key question is whether regulated onshore crypto perpetual futures pull liquidity and order flow toward these new entrants—potentially improving depth but also increasing competition and margin/fee pressure for leveraged BTC positioning.