Crypto Perpetual Futures Race: Kalshi and Polymarket dey target onshore BTC

Kalshi and Polymarket don dey enter crypto perpetual futures, dem wan chop derivatives market share from big venues like Coinbase. Kalshi, based on report from The Information (Apr 21), dey plan to launch crypto perpetual futures for assets like Bitcoin. The firm dey operate under plenty CFTC licenses and dem just get approval for margin trading last month, so dem get clearer regulatory path to offer these contracts onshore. If dem launch am, e go be Kalshi first product outside im event-based binary contracts. Polymarket also announce say dem go offer crypto perpetual futures the same day. Dem post promo for X showing leveraged trading up to 10x across crypto and equity-style instruments, and dem open early-access waitlist at /perps. Dem never clarify if the perpetuals go run on dem US-facing site, international site, or both. Regulation timing fit quicken adoption: CFTC Chair Michael Selig don signal say the US agency plans to formally authorize perpetuals. Meanwhile Coinbase—after e acquire Deribit in Aug 2025—still never launch truly open-ended perpetuals in the US. Funding context dey add urgency: Kalshi reportedly dey finalise $1B raise at about $22B valuation, while Polymarket dey talk for ~$400M at about $15B valuation. For traders, the key question be whether regulated onshore crypto perpetual futures go pull liquidity and order flow to these new entrants—fit improve depth but still go bring more competition and pressure on margins/fees for leveraged BTC positions.
Neutral
Dis tori na beta boku tok say market structure an venue waka pass small small, e no be direct change for BTC/ETH fundamentals. If CFTC-give permission make onshore crypto perpetual futures spread, traders fit see better regulated liquidity and maybe more competitive fees/order-flow dynamics. But the announcements no mean say immediate supply/demand shock go hit BTC or ETH, so likely price reaction for the underlying coins go limited and e fit mix across venues rather than straight one direction.