Kalshi Secures US Open Deal Amid Sports Betting Legal Risks
Kalshi has reportedly secured an exclusive US Open prediction market partnership with the United States Tennis Association (USTA). The agreement took effect before the tournament’s main draw, after earlier expectations that it would cover the 2026 event. Financial terms were not disclosed, and Kalshi was not yet listed on the US Open’s official partner roster.
The USTA is reportedly preventing rival prediction platforms from advertising at the venue or during ESPN broadcasts. The deal could increase Kalshi’s visibility, liquidity and sports-contract activity. Kalshi already offers US Open match contracts, with some markets exceeding $1 million in trading volume. Sports contracts are now its largest category, while Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US recorded combined August volume of $43.4 billion. Kalshi accounted for $35.55 billion.
Kalshi’s US Open partnership adds to its relationships across the NHL, MLB, FIFA World Cup and professional teams. However, regulatory risks remain significant. The Ninth US Circuit found that Kalshi had not shown federal commodities law preempted Nevada gaming rules, conflicting with an earlier Third Circuit decision. The split raises the prospect of Supreme Court review and leaves unresolved whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or state gaming regulators control sports-event contracts.
New York is seeking at least $36 billion from Kalshi over alleged unlicensed gambling. Courts in Nevada, Washington and Michigan have also restricted some sports contracts, while Baltimore has sued Kalshi and Polymarket. The US Open deal is commercially positive, but it does not remove the legal and operational risks facing prediction markets.
Neutral
The US Open partnership is a positive commercial development for Kalshi. Exclusive visibility, access to ESPN broadcasts and strong sports-contract volume could support user growth, liquidity and long-term platform activity. The reported $35.55 billion in August volume also signals substantial demand for event-based trading.
However, the news does not directly create a tradable token catalyst because Kalshi and Polymarket do not have commonly used native cryptocurrencies. More importantly, the Ninth Circuit ruling, conflicting appellate decisions, state-level restrictions and major legal claims could limit market access or increase operating costs. In the short term, traders may view the partnership positively but remain cautious because regulatory headlines can quickly affect prediction-market activity. Over the long term, the outcome of the jurisdictional dispute will matter more than the US Open agreement. Overall, the commercial upside is offset by unresolved legal risks, supporting a neutral classification.