Kalshi Gold Markets Overtake Ether in September

Kalshi’s 15-minute gold markets recorded 542 million contracts in September, surpassing the 318 million contracts traded in its Ether markets only weeks after launching in August. Gold contracts settle on whether prices finish above or below a reference level during each 15-minute window, using Pyth pricing data. Predict Charts estimated that Kalshi gold markets generated about $5 million in September fees, compared with roughly $2.6 million for Ether. Bitcoin remained the largest 15-minute cryptocurrency market, with estimated fees of $60.4 million. These figures are based on trading records rather than company-reported revenue. Kalshi’s 15-minute gold markets are part of a broader expansion in short-term prediction markets. InGame estimated that 15-minute crypto, commodity and financial markets generated $20.4 million in fees in the seven days to October 5. They represented 13% of volume but 20% of fees, partly because contracts near even odds can carry higher effective fee rates. Kalshi said its commodity markets reached $400 million in cumulative volume within seven months, outpacing its crypto category during the comparable period. The platform now offers gold, silver, oil, copper and agricultural contracts, with perpetual products linked to gold, silver and platinum reportedly planned. For crypto traders, the data points to growing competition between cryptocurrency and commodity prediction markets, but it does not provide a direct bullish or bearish signal for BTC or ETH prices.