Polymarket Loses Ground as Kalshi Leads Prediction Markets
Polymarket’s share of the prediction market fell from about 95% in September 2024 to 27%, as CFTC-regulated rival Kalshi expanded. In October 2026, Kalshi recorded roughly $65 billion in trading volume, about 10% more than in September. Polymarket US reported $10 billion, up around 15% month over month, while its international platform’s share fell to single digits.
Kalshi held about 83% of US-regulated prediction market activity. Its open interest reached approximately $2.05 billion, compared with $384 million for Polymarket US. The article attributes Kalshi’s gains to regulatory clarity, wider distribution through Robinhood and Coinbase, and an expanded range of products, including sports contracts.
Polymarket US grew faster by percentage in October, but remains far smaller in absolute volume. Record open interest ahead of the US midterm elections could support activity across the sector. Traders will be watching whether Polymarket can sustain growth after the election-driven surge, whether more brokerages partner with prediction markets, and how regulators approach sports and parlay-style contracts.
Neutral
This is primarily a competition and distribution story, not a direct catalyst for major crypto assets. The article identifies no token launch, crypto protocol change, or material shift in blockchain fundamentals. Polymarket’s on-chain model is losing ground to Kalshi, a regulated exchange whose growth has been aided by brokerage access. This may influence sentiment around crypto-native prediction platforms and the broader debate over regulated versus decentralised markets, but it does not by itself point to a clear near-term direction for BTC, ETH, or the wider crypto market.
In the short term, traders may focus on prediction-market activity around the US midterms, including open interest, trading volume, and regulatory developments. Strong election-related activity could lift interest in the sector, while scrutiny of sports and parlay-style contracts could create uncertainty for platforms and their partners. In the longer term, sustained brokerage distribution and regulatory clarity could favour regulated operators, while Polymarket’s faster percentage growth in October suggests its US business is still expanding from a smaller base. As with earlier shifts in crypto toward platforms with easier access and clearer compliance, adoption and liquidity may concentrate where users face fewer barriers. Overall, the news is relevant to the prediction-market sector but has limited direct implications for broad crypto-market stability.