Kalshi Launches On‑Chain Prediction Markets on Solana
Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated event‑prediction exchange, is expanding into crypto by launching on‑chain prediction markets on Solana. The move shifts some of Kalshi’s markets from its centralized platform to decentralized, on‑chain markets built on Solana’s high‑throughput network, enabling composability with DeFi and broader crypto-native access. The rollout targets faster settlements, lower fees and potential integration with wallets and liquidity protocols. Kalshi remains focused on regulatory compliance in the U.S., positioning on‑chain offerings as complementary to its existing regulated market. Traders should note this expands market types available, increases accessibility for crypto users, and could drive trading volume into Solana ecosystems while preserving Kalshi’s regulated on‑ramps.
Bullish
Kalshi’s launch of on‑chain prediction markets on Solana is likely bullish for short‑to‑medium term crypto trading, especially for Solana (SOL) and DeFi liquidity on that chain. Key reasons: 1) Increased trading volume — moving markets on‑chain typically attracts crypto-native traders who prefer wallet custody and composability, raising on‑chain volume and fee revenue. 2) DeFi composability — on‑chain markets can integrate with liquidity protocols, AMMs and wallets, enabling new trading strategies and arbitrage that increase activity. 3) Cost and speed advantages — Solana’s low fees and fast finality lower execution costs and support high‑frequency or event-driven trading. 4) Credibility and regulatory bridging — Kalshi’s regulated background may draw institutional or regulated retail users into on‑chain products with clearer compliance signals, expanding the user base. Comparable events: previous launches of derivatives or prediction protocols on popular chains (e.g., derivatives moving on‑chain) have increased native token utility and volume for those chains. Risks: regulatory scrutiny remains a wildcard — if authorities view on‑chain markets differently, that could dampen enthusiasm. In the short term, expect positive price action and volume uplift for SOL and related DeFi tokens; in the long term, the impact depends on user adoption, liquidity integrations, and regulatory outcomes. Overall, market reaction is expected to be net positive but contingent on execution and compliance developments.