Prediction Markets: Kalshi Hits $4.39B, Polymarket $2.29B

Prediction markets continued to set new records in late 2025, with Q3 trading volumes exceeding $3 billion—five times year-ago levels—and October volumes surging to $4.39 billion on Kalshi and $2.29 billion on Polymarket. A sports betting boom, accounting for nearly $1 billion on Kalshi in the final week, drove the rally. Kalshi’s CFTC license and Robinhood integration have broadened access for Web2 users without crypto wallets, while Polymarket’s on-chain model saw over 76,000 active wallets despite US trading restrictions. Institutional interest remains strong: ICE invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and CME Group is exploring sports-linked contracts. Both platforms faced operational hiccups—Kalshi’s market outage and Polymarket’s API-only access during downtime—and accuracy issues in predicting the Dutch elections. Analysts say future growth hinges on regulatory clarity and user trust. Crypto traders should monitor these prediction markets for diversified insights, paying close attention to evolving regulations and platform performance.