Kalshi Traders Price 80% Chance of December Fed Rate Cut
Kalshi traders now assign an 80% probability to a Fed rate cut in December, a dramatic rise from under 45% a week earlier. This Fed rate cut prediction reflects cooling inflation, signs of economic slowdown, shifting labor market data and dovish comments from Fed officials. As a regulated prediction market, Kalshi aggregates real-money trades, offering timely, market-based forecasts. A rate cut could weaken the dollar, boost risk appetite and draw institutional capital into cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, while enhancing liquidity and fueling DeFi interest. However, a surprise inflation uptick, robust employment figures or global instability could alter expectations. Crypto investors should stay agile, diversify portfolios and maintain liquidity, using these predictions alongside fundamental and technical analysis.
Bullish
The 80% Fed rate cut probability signals increased risk appetite and potential USD weakness, factors that historically support cryptocurrency rallies. In past cycles, Fed easing has coincided with institutional inflows and price uplifts for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Short-term, traders may increase leverage and altcoin positions anticipating higher liquidity. Long-term, sustained lower rates could foster broader DeFi growth and stablecoin adoption. However, volatility around the actual Fed decision remains, as data-driven deviations can quickly shift sentiment. Overall, the news creates a bullish backdrop, encouraging crypto investors to position for a potential surge while monitoring key economic indicators.