Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR) Begin to Decouple: New Highs for BTC Amid MSTR Weakness Raise Correlation Risks

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has recently surged to new all-time highs, outpacing major US stock indexes and signaling robust bullish momentum. However, 10X Research and latest market data point to a growing divergence between Bitcoin and MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares. While the monthly correlation coefficient between BTCUSD and MSTR remains high at 0.83, fresh technical indicators flag that MSTR is now showing bearish signals even as Bitcoin maintains upward momentum. This decoupling raises the potential for future price separation between the two assets. Contributing to this shift, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor’s comments at the Bitcoin 2025 conference cast doubt on proof-of-reserves practices, stirring concerns about the transparency of MSTR’s large Bitcoin holdings—now totaling 580,250 BTC after a recent acquisition. Despite traditionally strong alignment between MSTR and Bitcoin performance, declining investor enthusiasm for MSTR, particularly among traditional finance players, highlights growing skepticism. 10X Research suggests a bear put spread as an options strategy for MSTR, offering defined risk for traders anticipating further declines. Historically, a disconnect between MSTR and BTC has sometimes preceded corrections in the broader crypto market, though this is not a guaranteed signal this time. Crypto traders are advised to monitor the evolving correlation: if MSTR faces a downturn while Bitcoin rallies, it could set a precedent for reduced interdependence. Conversely, continued bearish momentum in MSTR could renew downside risk for BTC. This divergence is a caution for crypto portfolio managers to watch both assets carefully and adjust hedging strategies in response to potential market volatility.