Kevin Walsh Emerges as Frontrunner for Fed Chair as Hassett Likely to Remain in Current Role
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett signaled he is likely to remain in his current position, effectively withdrawing from contention for the next Federal Reserve chair. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show former Fed governor Kevin Walsh (Kevin Warsh) now leading the odds for the Fed chair, with his implied probability near 60%. Hassett’s chances are quoted around 15%–16%, while current governor Christopher Waller is at about 13%–14%. Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, and President Trump is expected to announce a successor within the month. The shifting probabilities in betting markets reflect traders’ reassessment of likely nominees ahead of the official nomination.
Neutral
The news concerns U.S. Fed leadership speculation and prediction-market odds, not a direct policy decision. For crypto markets, central bank leadership can influence macro conditions (interest rates, dollar strength) that affect risk assets, but this article only reports shifting odds favoring Kevin Warsh and Hassett stepping back. Short-term market reaction is likely muted: traders may price in slight moves in dollar or risk sentiment around the nomination announcement window, but without an immediate policy change the direct impact on crypto is limited. Historically, Fed chair nominations can create volatility if the nominee is perceived as significantly more hawkish or dovish. If Kevin Warsh is viewed as more hawkish than Powell, that could be mildly bearish for crypto over the medium term due to tighter monetary policy expectations; if viewed similarly or more neutral, impact will be minimal. Overall, until an official nomination and any signals about policy direction appear, the announcement mainly shifts expectations rather than fundamentals—hence a neutral classification.