Robert Kiyosaki: Japan’s 30-Year Carry Trade Ending — Global Asset Bubble Risk and 10 Survival Moves
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, warned on X that Japan’s decades-long carry trade is ending and may trigger a global asset bubble burst. He says Japanese low-cost capital fuelled 30 years of inflows into real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities and businesses, inflating global asset prices. Kiyosaki claims the reversal—prompted by policy shifts in Japan—has already begun and could cause systemic market turmoil. He pledged to publish 10 actionable recommendations for investors to avoid becoming victims and possibly grow wealth during the downturn. The first recommendation: invest in energy (oil and natural gas) because AI expansion will drive high energy demand; he suggests exposure via producers, private funds, energy stocks, ETFs or mutual funds. Kiyosaki stresses his list is personal opinion, not formal investment advice. Market commentators are split: some call his rhetoric dramatic, others warn that a liquidity reversal could exacerbate volatility. The story highlights themes relevant to traders: risk from a major cross-border capital-flow reversal, potential sector rotation into energy, and elevated market sensitivity to shifts in Japan’s monetary stance.
Bearish
Kiyosaki’s claim points to a potential reversal of a long-standing source of global liquidity: Japan’s carry trade. A major capital-flow reversal or tighter Japanese policy would reduce dollar/yen-funded exotic leverage and yank support from risk assets (equities, real estate, credit, commodities). Historical parallels: the end of major carry-trade cycles (e.g., currency crises and sudden stops) have corresponded with volatile sell-offs and risk-premium expansions in 1998 and 2008. For crypto markets specifically, liquidity shocks and rising risk aversion typically cause sharp short-term drawdowns as margin calls and deleveraging trigger exits from higher-beta assets like BTC and ETH. In the short term, traders should expect increased volatility, correlation spikes between crypto and risk assets, and possible flight-to-safety flows into USD, stablecoins, gold, and high-quality sovereign debt. In the medium-to-long term, prolonged liquidity tightening could slow institutional inflows (including via spot ETFs) and depress prices; however, sector rotation into real assets or energy may create differentiated opportunities. Kiyosaki’s energy-focus recommendation could signal a tactical shift toward commodities/real-economy hedges. Overall, the news is bearish because it signals reduced external liquidity support and higher systemic risk, increasing downside pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.