Kraken IPO and M&A Wave Could Draw TradFi Capital, Boosting Bitcoin Mid‑Cycle
Fund manager Dan Tapiero says a possible Kraken US IPO and rising crypto mergers-and-acquisitions could attract TradFi capital and reinforce what he calls Bitcoin’s “mid-cycle.” Kraken reportedly raised $800 million in private funding at a $20 billion valuation and has filed for a US IPO. Bitcoin reached an October all-time high above $126,000 before a $19 billion liquidation event and has since eased to about $87,000 (CoinGecko), dropping roughly 6% over two weeks. Tapiero views IPOs and M&A as medium-term tailwinds for institutional inflows and market structure. Contrasting views: Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer expects a down year for Bitcoin in 2026 with a local support range near $65k–$75k, calling 2026 a potential “rest year.” Axis COO Jimmy Xue argues that the traditional four‑year cycle now interacts with macro liquidity and sovereign adoption, meaning cycles may be prolonged and higher lows could form if liquidity remains favorable. On‑chain analytics give mixed signals: Nansen reports “smart money” net-short positions across most major tokens, except pockets like AVAX and some Pump.fun‑related tokens. For traders: the Kraken IPO and M&A wave are potential bullish structural catalysts that may draw institutional inflows, but divergent analyst forecasts, smart‑money net‑short positioning and recent volatility imply higher short‑term risk. Maintain risk management, monitor institutional activity and on‑chain flows, and watch liquidity conditions for signals of sustained bullish follow‑through.
Bullish
Net effect: mildly bullish. The Kraken IPO filing and heightened M&A activity are credible institutional catalysts that can draw TradFi capital and improve market structure — typically positive for Bitcoin’s medium‑term price trajectory. Tapiero’s view frames these events as tailwinds that could extend the bull phase. Counterweights: prominent analysts (e.g., Jurrien Timmer) forecast a potential down year in 2026 with local lows around $65k–$75k, and Nansen’s smart‑money net‑shorts across major tokens signal short‑term caution. Short‑term impact is therefore ambiguous — increased volatility and risk of pullbacks — but if IPOs and M&A lead to measurable institutional inflows and improved liquidity, they are likely to support higher prices over the medium term. Traders should treat the news as a structural bullish signal while managing position sizing, stop placement, and monitoring on‑chain and liquidity indicators for confirmation.