Kuwait Declares Force Majeure as Hormuz Blockade Disrupts Oil Shipments

Kuwait has declared force majeure on its oil shipments after a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, where US naval forces have halted most traffic. The disruption is expected to tighten global oil supplies and raise the risk of escalation. A UK warship deployment is being priced in a prediction market ahead of an April 30 deadline. The probability of UK warships entering the strait is around 8–9% (reported at 8.5%). Market activity is thin, with low daily traded volume (about $70 per day in actual USDC) and a reported cost of roughly $634 to move the position by five price points. Despite some movement, odds have stayed broadly stable over the past week. Kuwait’s force majeure declaration increases pressure for Western allies to act if the blockade continues and if Gulf states request international military support. Traders are watching for signals from the UK Ministry of Defence and any UN Security Council actions. A confirmed naval movement or coordinated international response could cause odds to shift quickly. For crypto traders, the key linkage is geopolitical risk: renewed military risk around major energy chokepoints often triggers short-term risk-off behavior, which can spill into broader market liquidity and volatility.