L1/L2 tokens crash for 2025 as users shift to BTC, BNB and revenue-making protocols
OAK Research year‑end report show say big Layer‑1 and Layer‑2 tokens chop serious price and user decline for 2025 as capital and activity shift enter Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BNB Chain and protocols wey dey generate revenue. Total Monthly Active Users across major chains drop about 25.15%. Solana (SOL) lost about 94 million users (>60% decline) while BNB Chain nearly triple im user base by capturing migration flows. Layer‑2 performance split: Base see TVL gains helped by Coinbase distribution, Optimism and zkSync Era suffer sharp contractions, and Mantle show small TVL growth mainly tied to concentrated token supply. OAK say the token sell‑offs come from three structural problems: aggressive and continuous unlock schedules, weak value‑capture linking on‑chain usage to token demand, and institutions prefer BTC/ETH. Developer activity remain strong — Electric Capital data show steady dev growth across EVM and SVM stacks and two‑year full‑time developer growth strongest on Bitcoin. On‑chain revenues concentrate for stablecoin issuers (Tether, Circle) and derivatives venues, leaving undifferentiated infrastructure tokens exposed. Outlook for 2026: continued downside and consolidation risk for undifferentiated L1/L2 tokens without clear revenue models or differentiation (speed, cost, security); protocols with meaningful revenues might stabilise but still face unlock pressure and market volatility. For traders: expect ongoing sell pressure on speculative L1/L2 tokens, flight to base layers and fee‑earning protocols, and higher sensitivity to token unlock schedules, TVL and on‑chain revenue metrics.
Bearish
Di report dey point to wide selling pressure for L1/L2 tokens wey dey drive by structural tokenomics wahala (aggressive unlock schedules and weak value capture), users wey dey migrate comot from many chains, and institutional preference for base layers like BTC and ETH. These factors mean say undifferentiated infrastructure tokens fit still face downwards price pressure short and medium term. Short‑term: expect volatility and more sell‑offs around token unlocks, negative reactions to falling TVL and user metrics, and rotation into BTC/ETH, BNB and fee‑earning protocols. Medium‑to‑long term: tokens wey no get clear revenue models or differentiation fit face consolidation or permanent market share loss; protocols wey generate real on‑chain revenues or get institutional support fit stabilize but still dey vulnerable to big unlocks and macro risk. For traders, this mean tactical shorting or reduce exposure to speculative L1/L2 tokens, monitor unlock schedules, TVL and on‑chain revenue indicators, and favour base layers and protocols wey get demonstrable fee income.