Logan Paul’s $1M Super Bowl ‘Bet’ Was a Fake, Crypto Sleuths Say
During the Super Bowl, influencer Logan Paul appeared to place a $1 million wager on Polymarket’s prediction market, prompting a promotional clip from Polymarket. Crypto investigators quickly found the account shown had no funds and top holders of the market did not match Paul’s alleged bet. Researcher ZachXBT called the stunt a “scam,” citing Paul’s prior controversial CryptoZoo project and noting his earlier livestreams promoting Polymarket. The incident reignited legal and ethical scrutiny of crypto prediction markets: Polymarket is suing Massachusetts over attempts to shut down its sports markets, while rival Kalshi faces criticism for marketing that may encourage risky, gambling-like behaviour among young adults. Critics including commentator DeFi_Dad and BetHog CEO Nigel Eccles warned that such ads mislead users into treating betting as investment and likened the marketing risk to past youth-focused scandals. The outcome meant Paul incurred no loss after Seattle beat New England 29–13, but the episode highlights ongoing regulatory, reputational and consumer-protection risks for crypto prediction platforms and the potential hazards when celebrities promote gambling-like crypto products.
Bearish
This incident is bearish for crypto markets tied to prediction markets and reputationally sensitive platforms. Key reasons: 1) Credibility hit — a high-profile promotional stunt exposed as misleading undermines user trust and could reduce user activity and liquidity on prediction platforms. 2) Regulatory pressure — Polymarket’s ongoing legal battles and the spotlight on Kalshi’s advertising increase the likelihood of stricter oversight or restrictions in the U.S., which can constrain product offerings and market growth. 3) Negative publicity — comparisons to past celebrity-driven crypto failures (e.g., CryptoZoo) raise investor wariness, particularly among retail users who drive short-term volume. Short-term impact: elevated selling pressure or reduced trading volumes on native tokens or related platforms, spike in negative sentiment and potential higher volatility. Long-term impact: if regulators clamp down or platforms are forced to change marketing/product structures, adoption and revenue models could be impaired, producing sustained downside for tokens and firms reliant on prediction markets. That said, the broader crypto market (BTC, ETH) is unlikely to be materially affected unless regulatory actions expand beyond prediction markets into wider crypto sectors.