Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Stop Selling as ETFs and Treasuries Step In
Long-term Bitcoin holders paused a months-long selling trend and briefly shifted to net buys, coinciding with renewed institutional flows and corporate treasury accumulation. CryptoQuant data showed long-term holders moved from distributing ~674,000 BTC (≈$59.8bn historically) to net buying 10,700 BTC in a single day. Exchange netflows recorded over $4 billion in BTC outflows through December, suggesting accumulation by short-term and retail buyers. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed recent outflows with $335 million of inflows—the third-largest daily inflow since October—after previously seeing $1.12 billion withdrawn between Dec 17–29, per CoinGlass. Corporate treasuries hold roughly $152.4 billion in BTC (~1.175 million coins), with MicroStrategy alone holding about $59.7 billion and adding an estimated $22 billion in 2025. Bitcoin trades range-bound near $85,000–$90,000 after a 32% decline from its $126,000 all-time high; the Fear & Greed Index sits at 32, indicating prevailing caution. Key implications for traders: reduced sell-side pressure from long-term holders and renewed ETF inflows may act as a support floor and lower downside risk in the near term, while sustained institutional and treasury demand can underpin longer-term accumulation. Monitor on-chain netflows, ETF daily flows, and exchange reserves for confirmation of trend continuation or a return to distribution.
Bullish
The net pause in selling by long-term holders, significant exchange outflows, a sizable one-day net buy signal on CryptoQuant, and renewed spot ETF inflows together reduce immediate sell-side pressure and indicate accumulation. Corporate treasuries holding $152.4bn of BTC provide a steady demand floor that can absorb supply during drawdowns. Historically, similar patterns—long-term holder accumulation combined with ETF inflows and declining exchange reserves—have preceded multi-week to multi-month stabilization or recoveries (e.g., post-2020/2021 accumulation phases). In the short term, traders should expect reduced downside tail risk and potential range-bound upward bias; watch for continued ETF inflows and falling exchange reserves to confirm a sustainable trend reversal. In the long term, persistent treasury and institutional buying supports a bullish structural narrative but broader macro and liquidity conditions remain key risks—if ETF flows reverse or macro liquidity tightens, the bullish case could weaken.