Long-term Holders Spent ~370,000 BTC in 30 Days; Net Metrics Understate Activity
Gross on-chain data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) spent roughly 12,000+ BTC per day over the past 30 days — about 360,000–370,000 BTC total — far exceeding the ~144,000 BTC net LTH distribution commonly reported. The gap is explained by coin maturation: about 226,000 BTC matured from short-term holders (STHs) into LTHs during the same period, offsetting much of the gross outflow and producing the smaller net decline. This indicates net position-change metrics can materially understate actual selling by LTHs when coin maturation rates are high. The activity occurred amid a broader market sell-off that briefly pushed BTC toward $81,000 (a two‑to‑three month low) and coincided with an “extreme fear” reading (16) on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Additional Glassnode metrics show the 90‑day SMA Realized Profit/Loss Ratio fell from 19 in July 2025 to 1.7 today, signalling weakening demand and rising investor frustration. Key takeaways for traders: gross spent volume reveals substantially more supply pressure than net metrics imply; high coin maturation can mask active distribution; monitor gross flows, maturation rates and realized P/L indicators alongside price action and sentiment for better trade timing.
Bearish
The news points to materially higher gross selling by long-term holders (≈360k–370k BTC) than net metrics show, implying increased supply pressure that can weigh on price. Although maturation of 226k BTC into LTH status reduced the net outflow to ~144k BTC, the underlying gross flows reveal active distribution. This, combined with a sharp drop toward $81k, an “extreme fear” sentiment score (16) and a collapse in the 90D‑SMA Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (19 → 1.7), suggests weakened demand and elevated selling interest. Short-term impact: higher immediate downside risk as LTHs offload positions and realized-profit metrics deteriorate, increasing volatility and reducing conviction among buyers. Traders should expect potential further declines or choppy price action until gross outflows subside or on‑chain indicators stabilize. Long-term impact: if LTH selling persists at scale, it could prolong a distribution phase and delay sustained recovery; conversely, if maturation slows and net supply turns negative, the bearish pressure could abate. Historical parallels: past periods where gross outflows exceeded net changes (due to high maturation) have preceded extended corrective phases (notably mid-2019 and parts of 2022), as available supply briefly overwhelmed demand. Recommended trader actions: watch gross spent volume, coin maturation rates, realized P/L ratios, on‑chain whale activity and fear/greed sentiment for entry/exit timing; favor risk management and reduced leverage until on‑chain selling eases.