LTH Sell-Off Eases, ETF Outflows Drop as Bitcoin Nears $90K — January Risks Remain
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have sharply reduced selling pressure after peak monthly outflows exceeding 400,000 BTC in mid-December, with Glassnode and CryptoQuant data showing LTH flows have tapered and turned positive. U.S. spot BTC ETFs, which were net sellers in November, have materially reduced outflows, lessening institutional selling pressure and helping stabilise price near $90,000. Market hedging shows concentrated put activity around $80k–$83k support, while calls cluster at $88k and $94k, per Arkham. Key near-term risks for January 2026 include MSCI index eligibility decisions (notably for MicroStrategy), Federal Reserve policy and rate updates late month, and the U.S. government funding deadline — any negative outcomes could reintroduce volatility and push BTC below the $80k hedge zone. Analysts note some ETF and tax-motivated “heartbeat” trades may cause short-term churn independent of sentiment. For traders: monitor LTH flow trends, ETF inflows/outflows, MSCI rulings, Fed announcements, and option skew around $80k–$95k for directional cues; a confirmed resumption of positive institutional flows or index inclusion could be bullish, while adverse macro or index decisions could trigger renewed selling.
Neutral
The article signals improving demand — LTH outflows have eased and spot ETF selling pressure has declined — which supports price stabilisation and a constructive bias. However, material near-term macro and institutional catalysts (MSCI index rulings, Fed policy decisions, government funding deadlines) pose meaningful downside risk. Option flow concentrating puts around $80k indicates market hedging and readiness for volatility. Historically, reduced long-holder selling and eased ETF outflows have preceded consolidation or bullish recovery, but major index delistings or adverse Fed moves have previously generated sharp drawdowns. Thus the immediate balance of forces is mixed: bullish technical and flow signals balanced by clear event-driven tail risks, warranting a neutral classification. Traders should watch LTH flow continuation, ETF flows, MSCI announcements, Fed outcomes and option skew for trade triggers — positive confirmations favor bullish continuation, negative surprises could quickly turn the market bearish.