Bloomberg Raises Altcoin ETF Approval Odds Above 90% for XRP, DOGE, ADA; SUI at 60%
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have lifted the odds of SEC approval for spot altcoin ETFs to over 90% for XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC), citing constructive engagement with regulators and the SEC’s acknowledgment of 19b-4 filings and S-1 updates. Approval forecasts for Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX) and Hedera (HBAR) also stand at 90%, while SUI trails at 60% due to regulatory uncertainty and the absence of a futures market. Prediction markets on Polymarket are even more optimistic, pricing XRP at 98%, SOL at 91% and DOGE at 71%. Key SEC deadlines include October 10 for SOL and October 17 for XRP. Cardano’s ecosystem gains momentum after Iagon’s partnership with Ford Motor Co., and technical analysis warns of near-term headwinds for SOL, with support near $123 and resistance around $140. ETF Store president Nate Geraci forecasts a breakout year for crypto ETFs in 2025, including spot ETH staking and in-kind creations. If approved, these altcoin ETFs are expected to boost liquidity and draw new inflows into the crypto market.
Bullish
Raising approval odds for major altcoin ETFs to above 90%, coupled with SEC acknowledgment of key filings and positive prediction-market signals, suggests a regulatory shift that could unlock significant institutional and retail inflows. In the short term, optimism around SEC deadlines may spur buying interest in the referenced tokens. Over the long term, spot altcoin ETFs could broaden access, increase liquidity and stabilize prices, reinforcing a bullish outlook for XRP, DOGE, ADA, SOL and LTC.