Mayer Multiple vs MVRV Z-Score: Evaluating BTC Top Signals
Crypto traders rely on on-chain and technical indicators to spot market tops. Two popular metrics are the Mayer Multiple and MVRV Z-Score. Mayer Multiple measures Bitcoin’s spot price relative to its 200-day moving average; values above 2.2 indicate overheating. MVRV Z-Score compares market cap to realized cap, with readings above 5 signaling excessive unrealized profits. A historical backtest over 11 major BTC drawdowns shows Mayer Multiple flagged 82% of tops—often too early—while MVRV Z-Score caught 45%, offering sharper timing but missing some corrections. Both metrics’ peak values have trended lower, reflecting a maturing BTC market. As of September 1, BTC’s Mayer Multiple sits at 1.07 and MVRV Z-Score at 2.1—well below critical thresholds. Traders should treat these signals as warnings, not strict sell triggers. Confirm trend reversals or await dual indicator heat. A spike above historical levels could signal an imminent correction. Until then, the bull cycle retains upside potential.
Bullish
Current readings of the Mayer Multiple (1.07) and MVRV Z-Score (2.1) remain well below historical overheat thresholds, suggesting that Bitcoin is not near a cycle top. Historically, spikes above 2.2 (Mayer Multiple) and 5 (MVRV Z-Score) preceded major corrections. Similar low-to-mid indicator levels were observed in previous bull cycles before final leg-ups. Short-term, these metrics signal no immediate sell-off, encouraging traders to hold or add positions. Long-term, the downtrend in top-signal peaks reflects a more mature market requiring lower thresholds, but still supports ongoing bullish momentum. Traders should monitor for threshold breaches as early warnings rather than strict exit points and seek confirmation from price action or volume signals to optimize trade timing.