Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone Warns Gold, Silver and US Stocks May Have Risen ’Too Much’ — Pullback Risk for 2026
Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned on January 2 that gold, silver, most metals and US equities show signs of having risen "too much," creating a heightened risk of a pullback in 2026. McGlone cited 2025’s strong rallies — gold up ~65% (from about $2,600/oz to ~$4,310/oz) and silver up ~144% (to about $72/oz) — as examples where rapid gains later pressured markets (he noted bitcoin and crude oil declined in 2025 partly for that reason). Drivers behind precious metals’ 2025 surge included geopolitical uncertainty, the Fed moving into a rate-cutting cycle, a weaker dollar and central bank buying; silver also benefited from growing industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics). US equities gained more modestly in 2025 (S&P 500 up ~16–17% to ~6,845; Nasdaq up ~19–20%), supported by AI and tech earnings and easing rate expectations. McGlone cautioned that fast price rises often stimulate increased supply and dampen demand, which can reverse trends. For traders, the alert implies elevated volatility and a higher probability of short-term corrections across safe-haven metals and risk assets, suggesting attention to risk management, profit-taking zones, and potential hedges.
Bearish
McGlone’s warning signals a higher probability of corrections across precious metals and risk assets due to prior rapid gains. Historically, asset classes that rally sharply in a short period (e.g., commodities or crypto following big speculative moves) often face mean reversion as supply responses, profit-taking and shifting sentiment weigh on prices. Examples include crude and bitcoin declines after 2021–2022 speculative peaks and commodity pullbacks after strong cyclical rallies. For traders, this news implies increased short-term downside risk and volatility: tactical strategies such as trimming long exposures, setting tighter stops, using options hedges or short/mean-reversion trades could be warranted. In the medium-to-long term, fundamentals (Fed easing, central bank reserves, industrial demand for silver) could sustain higher secular levels, so any pullbacks might offer opportunistic re-entry points for trend-following or value-focused traders. Overall, the immediate tone is cautionary — expect higher volatility and an elevated chance of corrections rather than a sustained bull continuation without intermittent pullbacks.