Memecoin Study Finds Early Peaks and Steep, Lasting Losses
A Coin Metrics study of memecoins launched since December 2023 found that the median token reached its all-time high just 17.2 days after first trading. After peaking, it took a median of 370 days to lose 95% of its value. More than half of the tokens were at least 95% below their highs, and only five of 151 tokens in a price comparison were above their first-day price. About 81% fell more than 90% from their peaks; just 3% of that group later recovered their all-time highs, while two-thirds never staged a substantial second rally.
The study also found that active addresses for most Solana memecoins rarely recovered after their first peak. Even leading tokens had no more than 7% of their peak active-address count. Low-barrier launch platforms such as Pump.fun have enabled millions of token launches, but few appear to sustain lasting participation. The findings highlight the short-lived momentum and downside risk of memecoin trading. However, the sample required tokens to be quoted on at least one centralised exchange, excluding many weaker launchpad tokens and potentially overstating typical memecoin longevity. The results describe a market pattern, not the inevitable performance of any individual token.
Bearish
The findings are bearish for the memecoin market because they document persistent losses, rare recoveries after severe drawdowns and a sharp decline in on-chain participation. In the short term, traders may become more cautious about chasing rallies or holding tokens after momentum fades, potentially increasing selling pressure on weaker memecoins. Over the longer term, the data may reinforce selective trading and stronger demand for evidence of sustained users and liquidity. The study does not establish that every memecoin will fall, and its centralised-exchange listing requirement may make the sample more durable than the wider launchpad market. It is therefore a risk signal for the sector, rather than a prediction of a specific token’s price.