Metaplanet Dilution Grows as Bitcoin Funding Slows
Metaplanet’s share price has plunged more than 50% since June after its Bitcoin-funding “flywheel” lost momentum, cutting its market cap premium over its BTC holdings from 8× to roughly 2× and stoking dilution fears. To finance further Bitcoin accumulation—from 18,991 to 20,000 BTC year to date—Metaplanet plans an $880 million overseas share offering and seeks to issue up to 555 million preferred shares (capped at 25% of BTC holdings, 6% dividends), potentially raising ¥555 billion ($3.8 billion). The firm aims for 30,000 BTC by year-end and 100,000 BTC by 2026. Inclusion in the FTSE Japan mid-cap index may offer support, but traders should watch how new equity issuance and the diluted Bitcoin premium affect Metaplanet’s stock and Bitcoin acquisition strategy. Bitcoin trades below $108,000 amid bearish signals and capital flows rotating to ETH.
Bearish
The news likely exerts bearish pressure on Bitcoin in the short term, as large equity issuances by Metaplanet to fund further BTC purchases flood the market with supply concerns, eroding confidence in the Bitcoin premium model and prompting traders to rotate capital to alternatives like ETH. The stalled funding ‘flywheel’ and mounting dilution risk weigh on sentiment, while technical indicators below $108,000 signal further downside risks. Over the long term, however, successful capital raises and continued BTC accumulation could support demand, but near-term market stability remains fragile amid broader risk-off flows.