Michael Burry Warns Bitcoin Could Collapse After 50% Drop Toward $65k
Veteran investor Michael Burry warned that Bitcoin’s recent plunge to about $65,850 — roughly a 50% drop from October peaks near $126,000 — could turn into a self‑reinforcing “death spiral.” In a Substack post he said weaker demand drivers (corporate treasuries and spot ETFs) do not provide a permanent price floor. Burry argued further declines — a 10% fall would heavily damage Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate BTC holder — could force forced asset sales across the crypto ecosystem. He also outlined systemic spillovers: tokenized gold and silver futures have been sold to de‑risk, potentially distorting physical markets. Burry warned a drop to $50,000 could bankrupt miners and collapse tokenized metals into illiquid “black holes.” Key stats: BTC ~ $65.8k (at time of report), ~50% off all‑time highs (~$126k), downside scenarios highlighted at -10% and -24% (~$50k). For traders: the note signals elevated liquidation risk, potential correlated selling in tokenized commodities, and increased counterparty and miner solvency risk — suggesting heightened volatility and downside pressure in the short term, with broader systemic risk if prices breach major support levels.
Bearish
Burry’s warning is bearish because it highlights force‑selling feedback loops, solvency pressure on major corporate holders (Strategy) and miners, and potential contagion into tokenized commodities. Historical parallels: 2018 and 2022 BTC drawdowns showed how leverage and concentrated holders can amplify declines via margin calls and asset sales, increasing volatility and liquidity stress. Short term: expect elevated downside risk, larger intraday moves, and heightened liquidation events around key supports. Market makers and ETFs may see higher redemption/sale flows, pressuring price. Long term: if BTC stabilizes above key infrastructure-driven adoption levels and miner economics adjust (e.g., lower costs, higher fees), recovery is possible — but sustained breaches of critical price floors (e.g., $50k scenario) would increase bankruptcies and reduce market depth, prolonging a bearish regime. Traders should size positions conservatively, use stop‑losses, monitor miner hash‑rate and corporate balance sheets, and watch tokenized commodities for correlated selling.