MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Solvency Under Debate Amid MSCI Index Risk

Independent researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera warns that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserve and dividend model may be unsustainable. He estimates the firm holds 649,870 BTC at a $48.37 billion cost basis, with just $54 million in cash against $700 million of annual preferred dividend obligations. Perera argues that reliance on fresh equity issuances as markets allow constitutes “borrowing to pay interest,” and that an MSCI decision on Jan. 15, 2026, could force index funds to dump up to $8.8 billion of stock. He also highlights liquidity risks if forced sales of around 100,000 BTC occur during market stress. Critics dispute the math. They say MicroStrategy Bitcoin cost basis is closer to $15 billion, cash obligations only $105 million per year, and preferred dividends are largely non‐cash. They point to 3.5× collateral coverage and flexible refinancing options. They also note the MSCI review is consultative. Meanwhile, MSTR shares test support at $175, with downside to $130–$140 if breached. Traders should monitor index risks, financing moves and share support levels.