MicroStrategy’s BTC Buy Efficiency Slumps as mNAV Falls Below 1 — DAT Bubble Risks Rise

MicroStrategy (Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed a recent bitcoin purchase totaling $264.1M at an average price of $90,061 per BTC, raising concerns because the funding came primarily from new-share issuances (1,569,770 ordinary shares and 70,201 STRC preferred shares). The company’s diluted mNAV fell to about 0.94x as of Jan 26, implying a ~6% discount to the per‑share BTC backing. From Jan 5–26, diluted shares rose 5.36% while BTC holdings rose 5.77%, narrowing the gap and signaling diminishing accretion from each capital raise. Over the past 19 months Strategy raised roughly $18.56B via equity issuance, highlighting continued reliance on capital markets. CoinShares research head James Butterfill says the DAT (digital-asset treasury) speculative bubble has largely burst — DATs’ mNAV premiums that reached multiple times NAV have faded to ~1x or lower as markets reassess companies that primarily issue stock to accumulate BTC without operating businesses. Butterfill expects a market reclassification: speculative DATs, treasury-driven DATs, token investment firms, and strategy-centric corporates. Strategy’s CEO Phong Le defended the approach on CNBC, noting the firm’s ability to raise cash quickly (citing a $1.44B dividend reserve fund raised in eight and a half days) and reiterated continued BTC accumulation, while founder Michael Saylor signaled more BTC tracker updates on X. Implication: accelerated equity dilution and mNAV discount raise questions about shareholder value creation and increase risk for DATs during market downturns, suggesting an industry shakeout favoring firms with real operations, disciplined asset management and realistic expectations.