MicroStrategy Faces mNAV Discount, Delisting Risk Amid Bitcoin Slump
MicroStrategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company, is under pressure as its market-asset-value multiple (mNAV) premium collapses to as low as 1.2, down 54.9% from its 2.66 peak. The stock (MSTR) now trades at a discount to its Bitcoin holdings. Concerns are rising over potential removal from major indices like Nasdaq-100 and MSCI USA, which could trigger up to $11.6 billion in passive outflows.
Executives have slowed Bitcoin purchases, adding just over 9,000 BTC in November versus 79,000 last year. Cash reserves have dwindled to $54.3 million, prompting issuance of €710 million in perpetual preferred shares at 8–10% dividends. Senior vice president Wei-Ming Shao plans to depart in December and has sold $19.7 million in MSTR stock under a prearranged 10b5-1 plan.
Despite these headwinds, institutional investors (Renaissance, state pension funds, central banks) still back the stock. Founder Michael Saylor reaffirms a “HODL” stance, insisting no Bitcoin will be sold unless prices fall below $10,000. Analysts from Matrixport, CryptoQuant and Willy Woo argue debt-related sell-off risks are overstated, noting convertible notes due in 2027–2032 can be refinanced or repaid without asset fire sales. The near-term outlook remains mixed, with market confidence hinging on Bitcoin price stability and index decisions.
Neutral
The article outlines both negative and mitigating factors. On the downside, MicroStrategy’s collapsing mNAV premium, potential index removal and slowed Bitcoin accumulation have fueled short-term bearish sentiment. Executive stock sales and reduced cash reserves add to pressure. Conversely, institutional backing, issuance of perpetual preferred shares and analysts’ views that debt-related sell-off risks are overstated provide stability. Founder Michael Saylor’s unwavering HODL stance further supports market confidence. Similar episodes in 2021 saw MSTR’s NAV discount widen before rebounding with Bitcoin rallies. Therefore, while short-term volatility may persist, long-term fundamentals remain intact, suggesting a neutral stance.