MicroStrategy mNAV Peak Aligns with IBIT $2B Options Debut

Published: 2025-09-04 11:54:02 |

MicroStrategy’s mNAV multiple reached a cycle high of 3.141 on Nov. 20, coinciding with the debut of BlackRock’s IBIT options, which recorded over $2 billion in first-day volume. Since then, MicroStrategy stock has fallen 40% and its mNAV compressed to 1.55, though it remains up 515% since January 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF launches—outpacing IBIT’s 128% gain. Bitcoin implied volatility is below 40, suggesting traders may hold off on leveraged and options strategies. For leverage vehicles like MicroStrategy shares to regain momentum, elevated bitcoin volatility will be key.

Neutral

This development is neutral for the broader cryptocurrency market. While MicroStrategy’s mNAV peak highlighted strong equity-linked exposure to Bitcoin, the subsequent 40% pullback and low implied volatility have muted further leveraged plays. IBIT’s robust $2 billion options debut confirms institutional appetite for spot Bitcoin derivatives, yet subdued bitcoin volatility under 40 discourages aggressive options and leverage strategies. In past cycles—such as 2021—rising volatility drove renewed momentum in leveraged vehicles. Unless volatility picks up, both MicroStrategy shares and IBIT options are likely to trade sideways, balancing long-term ETF adoption gains with short-term risk aversion.