MicroStrategy CEO: Only Sell BTC If mNAV < 1 and Financing Dries Up

Published: 2025-11-30 12:06:00 |

MicroStrategy holds ~649,870 BTC (~$59.2B market value) and CEO Phong Le says the company will only consider selling bitcoin if its market NAV (mNAV) falls below 1 and financing options vanish. The firm’s current mNAV is about 1.13 based on an average BTC cost of $74,000. Two mNAV calculation methods exist; MicroStrategy uses an enterprise-value-based formula (EV over Bitcoin NAV). Risks include potential removal from index providers (e.g., MSCI) triggering passive fund outflows and a convertible note maturing at year-end, which could strain liquidity if the share price remains depressed. Management calls selling a last resort to protect BTC-per-share economics and stresses maintaining financial discipline amid volatile BTC prices and a >50% share decline over six months. Key names: Phong Le (CEO) and Michael Saylor (Executive Chairman).

Neutral

The news is neutral overall. MicroStrategy’s CEO reaffirming a conditional no-sell policy reduces immediate liquidation risk, which is supportive for BTC and the company’s stock sentiment. However, concrete downside catalysts remain: share price discounted over 50% YTD, potential index removal (MSCI) risking passive outflows, and a convertible note maturing at year-end that could force funding needs. These unresolved liquidity and index risks create downside pressure if financing dries up, but management framing selling as a last resort and current mNAV >1 (1.13) limit immediate alarm. Short-term impact: heightened volatility around index rebalancing announcements and the convertible note maturity; traders may see increased correlation between MicroStrategy stock and BTC price, and potential episodic selling if funding deteriorates. Long-term impact: if MicroStrategy secures financing or the BTC price recovers, the announcement supports a stable hodling narrative and could be bullish for institutional BTC demand; if funding fails and forced sales occur, it would be bearish and could amplify BTC downside due to concentrated supply. Historical parallels: prior episodes where leveraged or heavily BTC-exposed firms faced margin/index-driven selling (e.g., 2022 deleveraging episodes) show concentrated corporate selling can cascade through correlated assets. Traders should monitor mNAV updates, index inclusion signals (MSCI), convertible note developments, and company funding activity for trade triggers.