MicroStrategy 70% S&P 500 Odds on Bitcoin Gain

Published: 2025-10-29 23:22:50 |

10X Research projects a 70% probability of MicroStrategy joining the S&P 500 in December after its October 30 Q3 earnings report. The firm expects to record about $3.8 B in fair-value gains from over 640,000 Bitcoin holdings. Despite slowing October Bitcoin purchases—778 BTC vs. 3,526 BTC in September—liquidity and volatility dynamics mark a new phase for DAT firms. MicroStrategy holds a B- credit rating from S&P Global. A strong Q3 earnings release could catalyze its S&P 500 inclusion and shape Bitcoin market sentiment.

Bullish

This news is bullish for Bitcoin trading. In the short term, strong Q3 gains and a credible path to S&P 500 inclusion can boost trading volume and positive sentiment. Institutional interest in a public company’s crypto strategy often translates into higher demand and reduced selling pressure. Over the long term, MicroStrategy’s potential index inclusion could legitimize Bitcoin in traditional portfolios, attracting more capital and supporting price appreciation.