MicroStrategy Cap Dips Below Bitcoin as mNAV Falls

MicroStrategy’s share price has tumbled nearly 60% since its November 2024 peak, underperforming Bitcoin and pushing its market cap to $63.5 billion—below the $65.5 billion value of its 641,692 BTC treasury. After accounting for $8.25 billion in convertible notes and $6.75 billion in preferred shares, its multiple net asset value (mNAV) stands at about 1.2×, down from earlier levels. Rising dividend obligations and a slowdown in Bitcoin buys—only 12,746 BTC added since August versus 400,000 the prior year—have fuelled fresh share dilution and heightened financing risks. Convertible debt maturing in 2028 adds to leverage concerns if the stock stays low, potentially forcing asset sales or more debt issuance. Short-term risks include further dilution, looming debt maturities and constrained Bitcoin financing. Longer term, failure to sustain a premium over its BTC holdings could undermine MicroStrategy’s treasury-based growth model. Crypto traders should monitor these structural pressures and their impact on Bitcoin market dynamics.