MicroStrategy Cap Drops Below Bitcoin; mNAV Falls Under 1×

MicroStrategy’s market capitalization has dropped below the value of its Bitcoin holdings as its mNAV (market-to-net asset value) slid under 1× for the first time. The firm holds about 629,000 BTC worth roughly $72.5 billion, while its share price plunge from 2025 highs has reduced its market cap to around $64.5 billion. This marks the end of a long-standing NAV premium. Declining Bitcoin prices, which have retested the $100,000 level, and the firm’s share dilution—resulting from over 40% increase in share count since 2022 due to equity sales and $1.01 billion in convertible bonds—have compressed MicroStrategy’s mNAV multiple. The company’s $689 million annual preferred dividends and high leverage have further squeezed financial flexibility. With cheap financing windows closed, MicroStrategy has begun issuing preferred shares and may consider share buybacks or derivatives hedges to manage its BTC reserves. Meanwhile, the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by BlackRock’s $89 billion fund, and retail platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood have reduced demand for MicroStrategy as a corporate Bitcoin proxy. Industry peers, such as Japan’s Metaplanet, have also seen share prices fall over 30%. Analysts’ price targets for MicroStrategy range from $360 to $570, highlighting varied outlooks. Traders should watch MicroStrategy’s financing moves and Bitcoin market trends for short-term volatility and long-term risk management. The NAV discount could attract value investors, but a stalled or falling Bitcoin price may heighten downside risk.