VanEck: Bitcoin miner capitulation signals potential market bottom

VanEck says recent, sharp declines in Bitcoin hashrate point to miner capitulation and historically have preceded stronger medium‑term BTC returns. The firm’s mid‑December 2025 ChainCheck notes about a 4% drop in network hashrate through Dec.15 — the largest 30‑day fall since April 2024 — and estimates nearly 400,000 mining rigs were taken offline as breakeven electricity costs for mid‑generation machines (for example Antminer S19 XP) fell roughly 35% from ~$0.12/kWh in late 2024 to ~$0.077/kWh by mid‑December 2025. VanEck links some of the loss to ~1.3 GW of Chinese capacity shutdown, possibly partly repurposed for AI workloads, which could remove up to ~10% of total hashrate. Historically, negative 90‑day hashrate growth has been followed by positive 180‑day BTC returns a large majority of the time; VanEck finds sustained hashrate compression improves forward 180‑day returns materially. The mechanism: higher‑cost or leveraged miners shut down or sell during price falls, hashrate drops, difficulty adjusts lower, restoring miner profitability and reducing forced selling — a supply‑side relief often seen near cyclical bottoms. BTC traded near $87,300 and struggled to clear $90K resistance around the report; VanEck frames miner capitulation as a contrarian, historically bullish indicator for 1–6 month returns but cautions that macro and liquidity conditions still determine magnitude and timing. Key takeaways for traders: miner capitulation may reduce selling pressure and create a more favorable risk/reward for medium‑term long positions, but monitor on‑chain metrics, difficulty and macro liquidity for confirmation.