Mizuho: Robinhood Likely to Out-earn Coinbase from Prediction Markets
Mizuho Securities surveyed 230 Robinhood and Coinbase users and found stronger interest and intended capital allocation to prediction markets among Robinhood customers. About 50% of Robinhood respondents plan to use new funds for prediction-market trades versus 37% at Coinbase. Users on both platforms trade prediction markets mainly around economic (81%), political (49%) and sports (47%) events and often add new capital rather than selling existing crypto holdings. Based on this behavior gap, Mizuho raised its revenue outlook for Robinhood and trimmed Coinbase’s price target, citing risk that prediction-market activity could cannibalize Coinbase’s core spot crypto trading fees. For traders, the note implies potential shifts in volume and fee mixes: Robinhood may invest more in prediction-market features, promotions and event offerings to monetise its retail base, while Coinbase may be more cautious to avoid diverting fee-bearing crypto volume. The coming quarters will show whether Robinhood’s broader, event-driven user base converts into materially higher prediction-market revenue and whether Coinbase can integrate prediction products without eroding spot trading fee income.
Neutral
The immediate blockchain price impact of this report is limited because it concerns platform-level revenue mix and user behavior rather than on-chain protocol changes or tokenomics. The survey suggests Robinhood could capture incremental fee revenue from prediction markets if it successfully converts retail interest, which is a positive signal for Robinhood’s business outlook but not directly bullish for any specific cryptocurrency. Conversely, Coinbase faces cannibalization risk to spot crypto trading fees if users reallocate funds to prediction markets, which could temper growth in exchange fee revenue. Short-term market reaction may be muted or mixed: traders could rotate fees and order flow between venues, but spot crypto prices are unlikely to move materially solely from this news. Over the medium term, if prediction markets scale and materially shift fee pools away from spot trading, exchanges that monetise prediction markets well may see revenue upside while those unable to adapt could underperform — a structural concern for exchange equities rather than a direct cryptocurrency price driver. Therefore classify impact on mentioned crypto trading activity as neutral.