Russian MOEX Bitcoin and Ethereum futures volumes surge amid BTC price crash
Trading volumes for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) futures on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) hit record highs during a sharp global spot-market correction in late January–early February 2026. BTC fell nearly 30%, dipping toward $60,000 before recovering to about $68,000; ETH plunged over 40%. MOEX’s Bitcoin Index futures volume rose about 434% from ₽380.3m (~$4.9m) on Jan 28 to ₽2.03bn (~$30m) on Feb 5, while trades increased from 8,400 to 42,800. Futures on BlackRock’s IBIT-linked instrument climbed 246% to ₽2.05bn. MOEX Ethereum Index futures jumped ~730% to ₽467.5m, and ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust futures) volume grew 178% to ₽291.5m, with trade counts rising several hundred percent across contracts. MOEX reported average daily crypto-futures volume doubled to ₽4bn in early February and open interest in BTC/ETH derivatives reached ₽9.3bn. Launched after the Russian central bank authorized crypto derivatives in May 2025, these USD‑denominated, ruble-settled products are currently limited to "highly qualified" investors, though regulatory changes due by July 1, 2026 aim to broaden access. MOEX and the St. Petersburg Exchange are primary venues. Analysts attribute the surge to global BTC volatility and rising domestic demand; some expect even larger turnover if spot crypto trading were permitted. Key takeaways for traders: elevated futures volumes and open interest signal heightened liquidity and leverage use on MOEX; regulatory changes could expand participant base and deepen Russian derivatives markets; high volatility creates both hedging and speculative opportunities but raises liquidation risk.
Neutral
The report describes a strong surge in derivatives volume and open interest on MOEX driven by a sharp BTC/ETH spot correction and rising domestic demand. That increased futures activity signals higher liquidity and active hedging/speculation, which can be bullish over the medium term if regulatory reforms broaden access and deepen markets. However, the immediate context is a price crash (BTC down ~30%, ETH down ~40%), which is bearish for spot sentiment and raises short-term liquidation and volatility risk. Similar past episodes (e.g., 2021–2022 crashes) show that spikes in futures volume during sell-offs can precede both rapid recoveries and extended downturns depending on macro conditions and liquidity. Given the mixed forces — larger market participation and improved infrastructure vs. current sell pressure and elevated risk of forced liquidations — the balanced classification is neutral. Traders should watch: open interest trends (sustained increases can indicate trend conviction), funding rates and leverage levels (liquidity stress indicators), and regulatory developments (which could materially increase participation and long-term bullishness). Short-term strategy: favor risk management (smaller position sizes, stop-losses, use of hedges). Longer-term: expanded access and deeper derivatives liquidity could be positive for institutional flows and market depth.