Khamenei Unconscious in Qom Lifts Iran Regime Fall Odds to 13.5%

Iran regime fall odds have risen after reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, is reportedly unconscious in Qom. The story adds to geopolitical stress as US and Israel pressure Iran continues. In a crypto prediction market tracking “Iran regime fall by June 30,” the YES price is now at 13.5%, up from 12% the prior day. It remains well below about 20% seen a week ago, implying repricing is gradual rather than a sudden collapse signal. Traders appear to be pricing a higher risk of internal fracture or a leadership struggle inside Iran’s political and military structures. Liquidity is active but not shock-driven: daily traded face value is about $439,688, with roughly $59,602 in USDC changing hands. Market depth suggests it would take about $195,747 in liquidity to move the price by five percentage points; the largest 24-hour move was only around +1 point. Key catalysts to watch for further updates to Iran regime fall odds include whether the Assembly of Experts convenes, any visible shifts in IRGC loyalty, and public appearances by potential successors. Absent clear IRGC fractures or large-scale protests, odds are still described as limited. For traders, note the payoff profile: a June 30 YES share around ~13.5¢ would pay $1 if the event occurs—high risk, high reward. Overall, the modest uptick in Iran regime fall odds reflects rising uncertainty during the ongoing conflict.