Monero risks pullback after ATH as stolen funds fuel rally
Monero (XMR) surged to a new all-time high of $799 on Jan 14, 2026, before dropping 13.5% in 24 hours to around $625, with daily volume down about 25%. Analysts link the sudden rally to a Jan 10 hardware wallet social-engineering attack that saw an estimated $282M+ in BTC and LTC stolen and converted into XMR via instant exchanges, temporarily driving demand. Technical indicators show XMR trading at a premium with nearest established demand zones near the prior ATH ~$518 and $400–$440. A crypto analyst warned of overheated retail futures activity—similar signals preceded deep pullbacks in ZEC and DASH—and suggested a likely retracement toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $447, where the 50-day moving average also sits. Traders are advised that fresh long entries carry elevated risk and that waiting for a pullback may be prudent. Key keywords: Monero, XMR, ATH, hardware wallet attack, retail futures, Fibonacci retracement, demand zone.
Bearish
The article points to several factors that increase downside risk for XMR in both the short and medium term. First, the immediate rally to $799 was at least partly driven by an exogenous event — a large-scale hardware wallet theft where stolen BTC and LTC were converted into Monero. Price moves driven by illicit conversion can be transient and prone to reversal once flows stop or selling occurs. Second, retail futures activity is described as overheated; historically, spikes in retail futures trading frequency have coincided with tops and subsequent deep pullbacks (examples cited include ZEC and DASH). Third, technicals support a likely retracement: the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~$447) aligns with the 50-day moving average, a confluence that often acts as a magnet for corrections. For traders, this implies elevated risk for fresh long positions at current prices and a higher probability of a notable pullback. Short-term impact: increased volatility, potential fast declines as retail longs are squeezed and stolen-asset conversion ceases. Medium-to-long term: fundamentals of Monero (privacy demand) remain, but price stability may be impaired until trading volume normalizes and the asset re-establishes support levels. Historical parallels (tokens that rallied on speculative retail futures hype then fell) suggest caution; traders should prefer waiting for confirmed demand-zone holds or use tight risk management if taking positions now.