Monero (XMR) risks falling below January low of $413 after 42% post-ATH drop

Published: 2026-01-26 13:52:15 |

Monero (XMR) has declined 4.5% in the past 24 hours and is trading around $459, marking a 42% drop since its all-time high of $798 on January 14. XMR is one of the worst performers among the top 20 crypto assets as the broader market struggles. On the 4-hour chart, price action is bearish: XMR sits just above the 100-day EMA (~$437) after a 10% single-day fall and faces the risk of falling below the January low of $413. The 200-day EMA near $383 is cited as a longer-term support. Technical indicators confirm downward momentum — MACD is below its signal line moving toward zero, and RSI is 32, showing a bearish bias without being deeply oversold. A bullish reversal would require reclaiming the 50-day EMA (~$485) to clear the path toward $500. Primary keywords: Monero, XMR, price forecast, January low, EMA, MACD, RSI. Secondary/semantic keywords: privacy coin, ATH, bearish momentum, support levels.

Bearish

The article outlines clear bearish price action and technicals for Monero. Key drivers: a 42% decline from the recent ATH, a 10% single-day drop, price sitting just above the 100-day EMA with risk of breaching the January low ($413), and MACD/RSI pointing to sustained selling pressure. The 200-day EMA near $383 is the next major support but would require further downside testing. Historically, large rapid pullbacks from an ATH (as with privacy coins in mid-January) often lead to extended consolidation or further declines before trend recovery, especially when market-wide sentiment is weak. Short-term implications: heightened downside risk, potential stop-loss triggers and increased volatility — traders should expect range expansion and be cautious with long entries until XMR reclaims the 50-day EMA (~$485) or shows bullish MACD/RSI divergence. Longer-term: if buyers defend the 200-day EMA, XMR can stabilize and resume recovery; if that level fails, longer-term trend could shift more negative. Overall, indicators and price structure favor sellers in the near term.