Bitcoin Fall Season: Take Profits Before Crypto Winter
Morgan Stanley strategists say Bitcoin has entered its four-year “fall season,” marking the time for profit-taking ahead of a potential crypto winter. This Bitcoin fall season reflects historical cycles of three up-trends followed by a downturn. Denny Galindo notes Bitcoin dipped below $99,000 on Nov. 5, breaching its 365-day moving average—a key technical bear market signal. Liquidity from stablecoins, ETFs and digital-asset treasuries has plateaued, indicating reduced buying pressure. Despite this, institutional adoption remains strong. Michael Cyprys reports spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs now hold over $159 billion combined, lowering entry barriers. Traders should secure gains during this fall season while weighing short-term bearish signals against long-term ETF inflows and demand.
Bearish
The Morgan Stanley call to take profits reflects a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin. The breach of the 365-day moving average and plateauing liquidity drivers suggest reduced buying pressure. This technical bear market signal may trigger near-term sell-offs. However, robust institutional demand and growing ETF inflows could provide a support floor for Bitcoin’s price over the long term. Overall, the balance of factors suggests a bearish impact on Bitcoin’s price in the near term, despite potential stabilisation from institutional participation.