Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase Target to $120
Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase (COIN) from Equal Weight to Underweight on November 2, 2026, and cut its price target from $258 to $120. The new target is below Coinbase’s October 30 closing price of $143.54.
Analyst Michael Cyprys cited weak trading trends and a subdued outlook for an earnings rebound. Morgan Stanley cut its 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates by 28% and 18%, respectively, and reduced adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 47% and 25%. It now expects normalized 2028 EBITDA of $2.4 billion, 14% below 2025 levels. The bank also lowered its valuation multiple from 20 times EBITDA to 12 times.
The downgrade follows disappointing third-quarter results and other recent price-target cuts. Lower crypto trading volumes could weigh on Coinbase’s transaction revenue, adding pressure to its stock and investor sentiment toward crypto exchanges.
Bearish
The downgrade is bearish for Coinbase shares because Morgan Stanley cut both its earnings forecasts and the valuation multiple applied to the company. The $120 target is about 16% below the October 30 closing price, while the forecast reductions point to concern that weak trading activity could persist. Lower trading volumes matter because transaction revenue is an important part of Coinbase’s business.
In the short term, the rating change may add selling pressure to COIN and reinforce caution after disappointing third-quarter results and other recent target cuts. Traders may also watch crypto prices, exchange volumes and subsequent analyst revisions for confirmation. The downgrade does not, by itself, establish a new direction for the broader crypto market; its direct effect is more concentrated in Coinbase and sentiment toward publicly traded exchanges.
Over the longer term, the outlook depends on whether trading activity and earnings recover, and on Coinbase’s ability to grow revenue from products beyond trading. The bank’s lower EBITDA multiple signals reduced confidence in the stock’s valuation, but it is an analyst forecast rather than a guarantee of future performance. Past exchange-stock sell-offs during periods of weak crypto activity have shown that share prices can remain under pressure if volumes and earnings fail to rebound. Conversely, a sustained recovery in crypto markets and Coinbase’s results could challenge the bearish outlook.