Morgan Stanley Predicts SpaceX Revenue to Hit $3.4T by 2040
Morgan Stanley says its IPO roadshow analysis for SpaceX implies extraordinary growth. The bank projects SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4T by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA above $2.7T—levels that would place SpaceX among the most profitable firms in history.
Key numbers: SpaceX reported $18.7B revenue for 2025. Morgan Stanley’s path to $3.4T implies about 180x growth over 15 years, or roughly 42% compound annual growth. The offering targets a valuation around $1.77T, with a Nasdaq listing under ticker SPCX and an aim to raise about $75B.
The bull case rests on three drivers: Starlink satellite internet, Starship heavy-lift rockets, and AI-related ventures. The most near-term claim is that SpaceX’s AI business alone could generate $190B in revenue by 2030—about a tenfold increase versus 2025 revenue.
A notable restriction: Chinese and Hong Kong investors are barred from participating in the IPO.
Traders should note this is an equity/IPO narrative rather than a direct crypto catalyst. Still, large “AI + satellite + space” funding expectations can spill over into risk sentiment for tech-adjacent themes and speculative positioning, especially if market participants treat the AI revenue milestone as a near-term credibility test for the broader thesis.
Neutral
This news is unlikely to move crypto prices directly because it concerns an equity IPO valuation and long-term corporate projections, not token economics or protocol changes.
Why “neutral”: (1) The figures are speculative and hinge on execution—especially the $190B AI revenue by 2030. Until milestones are verified, traders typically treat these as narrative rather than actionable fundamentals. (2) IPO roadshow sentiment can affect broader risk appetite (tech/AI stocks), which may slightly lift crypto beta during risk-on periods, but the link is indirect.
Short-term impact: mostly sentiment-driven. Similar historical patterns occur when major tech firms announce aggressive growth targets ahead of capital markets events—crypto often reacts through overall “liquidity/risk-on” mood rather than fundamentals, and any effect usually fades quickly unless follow-up data confirms the story.
Long-term impact: if SpaceX’s AI milestone gains credibility, it could support sustained risk-on appetite for AI-linked tech themes. However, that would still be second-order for crypto unless a direct partner, payments rails, or on-chain adoption pathway emerges.