Mt. Gox Delays $4B Bitcoin Refunds to 2026, Easing Sell Pressure
Mt. Gox has postponed its remaining Bitcoin refunds of about 34,700 BTC (worth roughly $4 billion) until October 2026. Since mid-2024, the trust returned 75% of its original 142,000 BTC without triggering a price drop, as robust US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate buyers—led by MicroStrategy’s 414,477 BTC—absorbed supply. The delay locks these coins from the market and eases immediate sell pressure.
This move aligns with expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising M2 money supply and improving US–China trade sentiment. Analysts now project Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end and potentially $500,000 by 2026. Traders should monitor residual ETF flows and on-chain dynamics.
Overall, this postponement acts as a bullish catalyst by reducing short-term market supply and reinforcing Bitcoin’s liquidity and upward momentum.
Bullish
By postponing $4 billion worth of refunding BTC, Mt. Gox reduces immediate sell pressure and locks up supply. This supports Bitcoin’s price in the short term by preventing a large influx of coins into the market. Coupled with ongoing strong demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate accumulation, the supply-demand balance remains tilted towards buyers. Over the longer term, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising M2 liquidity and improved US–China trade sentiment provide additional bullish momentum. Historical cycles in 2017 and 2021 showed that the market can absorb large-scale distributions when liquidity is deep. As a result, this delay is likely to underpin both near-term stability and long-term gains, justifying a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.