Multicoin: Hyperliquid (HYPE) revenue surge, dominant DeFi perps OI, and $319 target
Multicoin Capital published an analysis and valuation of Hyperliquid (HYPE), saying HYPE is becoming an “everything exchange” through liquidity compounding and onchain execution.
Key performance metrics cited: in 2025, Hyperliquid generated about $873M revenue across ~$2.9T trading volume, grew users from ~301K to ~923K, and ended with ~$6B open interest (OI). The report claims Hyperliquid controls over 59% of OI across DeFi perp markets, with ~$9.6B OI exceeding major onchain competitors combined. It also said Hyperliquid is taking meaningful market share from CEXs: monthly perps volume is ~17% of Binance’s (from near zero two years ago), while OI share has reached ~21%.
Near-term catalysts: HIP-3 expands beyond crypto-native assets, with RWA-linked OI reported above $2.9B and a licensed S&P 500 perp drawing over $100M daily volume in its first week. Deployer markets mentioned include oil, gold, silver, equity indices, and individual stocks. HIP-4 adds prediction markets and options. The report highlights portfolio margining across products within a single risk engine, and expects HyperEVM to enable deeper composability (e.g., lending and structured products) using Hyperliquid liquidity and prices.
Token-alignment thesis: ~99% of protocol revenue is used to buy back HYPE, with no separate equity layer and no outside fundraising.
Valuation: at about $63, Multicoin estimates ~36x TTM earnings (~30x including a live Coinbase/USDC agreement). The base-case projection targets ~$8B annual earnings by 2028, implying ~$319 at a 20x multiple. Risks noted include governance, regulation, competition, bad debt, and HyperEVM composability, but the firm views upside as larger.
For traders, the core takeaway is that Multicoin frames HYPE’s exchange traction (OI + volume share) as directly supporting token value capture, with product expansion (RWA, prediction markets, options) as the next growth leg for HYPE.
Bullish
Multicoin’s report is fundamentally price-relevant because it ties HYPE to measurable exchange traction: rising revenue, surging open interest, and growing share versus Binance/CEXs. That combination—especially expanding OI (reported dominance in DeFi perps) plus new product rails (RWA via HIP-3, prediction markets/options via HIP-4)—typically supports sustained demand for the token as traders anticipate deeper liquidity and wider asset listings.
In the short term, trader sentiment may skew bullish as valuation framing (earnings multiple + explicit 2028 projection) can trigger momentum and options/perp positioning around catalysts. In the longer term, if the HIP roadmap improves cross-asset adoption and portfolio margining, it can strengthen the liquidity flywheel and reinforce HYPE’s token value-capture narrative.
The main counterpoints are execution and risk: governance/regulatory uncertainty, competition from other perps venues, and potential bad-debt or composability issues with HyperEVM. Still, the market has historically rewarded “exchange-led” growth narratives when they show consistent OI/volume expansion—similar to how early liquidity compounding boosted major venues in prior cycles—so the net expected impact is bullish for HYPE volatility and upside over time.