Myriad traders price US boots on ground in Iran; oil spikes

A U.S. fighter jet reportedly being shot down over Iran has led Myriad traders (a prediction market run by Decrypt parent DASTAN) to rapidly raise odds of “US boots on the ground in Iran.” On the Myriad platform, the probability climbed to 90% (from 60% the previous day) that American military personnel will enter Iranian territory before the end of this month. The U.S. has reportedly conducted search-and-rescue operations after the incident. U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall and others have voiced concerns about the human cost of any escalation, after the conflict began and multiple U.S. deaths were confirmed. Myriad traders also diverged from President Donald Trump’s claim that core strategic objectives are nearly complete. They penciled in a 75% chance that Iran’s current ruling regime remains in place through October, citing an increasingly hard-line government after senior leaders were assassinated. Oil risk is central to the market backdrop. Trump argued the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened “with a little more time,” referencing oil and potential gains. WTI crude already rose toward four-year highs and Myriad traders assigned an 83% chance that WTI futures could reach $120 per barrel before later falling to $55. Brent spot prices were cited near the highest level since 2008. For crypto traders, the key link is macro: the odds of “US boots on the ground in Iran” are rising alongside higher crude volatility, which typically amplifies risk-off conditions and FX/liquidity stress—factors that can pressure BTC and broader majors in the short term.