NBIS surges 34% after Q2 AI cloud revenue, $40B commitments
Nebius (NBIS) shares jumped 34.14% to close at $259.20, driven by a Q2 revenue beat and rapid buildout of AI cloud capacity. Investors reacted to $582.3M Q2 revenue (up 454% YoY), versus an estimated ~$573M, plus a major profitability swing: adjusted EBITDA rose to $236.2M from a $21M loss.
NBIS also highlighted large contracted demand. The company signed four AI cloud contracts with average deal size above $1B each, pushing total customer commitments beyond $40B. Management expects over $9B in customer prepayments in 2026, and said contracts above $20M per megawatt should begin coming online in Q4.
On infrastructure, Nebius raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 gigawatts (from 4+ GW) and plans to deploy more than 1 GW of additional capacity annually starting in 2027. Capex remains heavy: it spent about $5.66B on property, equipment, and intangibles in Q2, while ending June with $8.04B in cash to fund data centers and GPU purchases.
For traders, the move put NBIS above the current average analyst target of ~$241, with 11 analysts’ range roughly $144–$286. Since the stock already rallied sharply, near-term upside may be partially priced in, but demand visibility tied to NBIS customer commitments and prepayments remains the key catalyst.
Bullish
This news is broadly bullish for market sentiment around NBIS because it combines an earnings beat with forward-looking demand signals. Similar to other “AI infrastructure” or data-center capacity stories, a surprise revenue upgrade plus contracted backlog typically triggers short-term momentum and re-pricing of risk. Here, NBIS delivered $582.3M revenue (+454% YoY) and swung adjusted EBITDA to profit, while also reporting >$40B in customer commitments and >$9B expected prepayments for 2026.
Short term, traders may chase the move as the stock closed well above the average analyst target ($241), and the catalyst is easy to underwrite with concrete contract figures. That can increase volatility and create “gap-and-go” dynamics.
Long term, the raised power target to 5GW and planned steady additions into 2027 supports a sustained capacity build-out narrative. The main risk—also typical in this sector—is heavy capex and execution risk (data centers/GPU sourcing, future pricing). However, the article suggests demand is ahead of supply and contracts are positioned to begin coming online from Q4, which can reduce near-term uncertainty. Overall, the balance of earnings momentum plus signed backlog visibility points to bullish price behavior for NBIS, though entries after a +34% day should manage risk due to potential mean reversion.