New crypto under pressure: only 7% beat TGE price
CryptoRank says the new crypto launched since 2024 has struggled to hold value. Tracking 113 coins from their token generation event (TGE) launch price, only 8 are currently above launch.
That implies a median return of -95.7% for the sample, with just 7.1% of tokens in profit. The study covers projects with market caps above $100M (as of July 21). The harsh takeaway for new crypto investors: 105 of 113 tokens are already trading below TGE.
The main exceptions were HYPE, ONDO, EVA and NIGHT. Hyperliquid’s HYPE leads, up about +1,519% versus its TGE price. Ondo’s ONDO follows at roughly +101.4%. EverValue (EVA) and Midnight Network (NIGHT) are also higher, but at much smaller gains (+20.3% and +16.5%). Even among winners, most only show modest upside, with limited double-digit outperformance.
CryptoRank attributes the declines to sell-offs, thin liquidity, and regulatory uncertainty, alongside broader market crashes driven by exploits over the past two years.
Traders should note this pattern as new tokens repeatedly fail to sustain demand after launch—often tightening risk controls, reducing liquidity depth, and amplifying volatility as investors rotate back to stronger incumbents like BTC.
Bearish
The data is fundamentally bearish for most traders because it shows that new crypto releases statistically fail to retain value shortly after launch. A median -95.7% vs. TGE price across 113 large-cap-leaning tokens signals weak post-TGE demand and a high probability of long drawdown phases.
In similar past cycles, early spikes around TGE/launch often faded as unlocks, liquidity thinning, and negative regulatory headlines increased sell pressure. Even the “winners” (HYPE, ONDO, EVA, NIGHT) appear like outliers rather than a repeatable strategy—important for position sizing and for avoiding assuming a broad-based recovery.
Short-term, traders may see heightened volatility around new listings, faster rotation out of freshly launched tokens, and tighter spreads as liquidity providers step back. Long-term, the market may become more selective, rewarding tokens with sustained fundamentals (or better tokenomics) while mechanically punishing speculative launches through liquidity/price decay. The presence of BTC strength (ETF inflows mentioned) further supports the tendency for capital to concentrate in majors rather than disperse across new tokens.