Report: Buying Newly Listed Tokens on Upbit, Bithumb, Binance Lost ~70% on Average
A Four Pillars analysis of 127 token listings during 2024 found that buying newly listed cryptocurrencies on their first trading day on Upbit, Bithumb and Binance produced catastrophic average losses near 70%. Reported average returns: Upbit -69.5%, Bithumb -69.1%, Binance -71.7% (listing date through Feb 2025). Only 2 Upbit and 8 Bithumb listings were profitable for first-day buyers. Researchers attribute the pattern to listing-driven demand spikes, low liquidity, insider timing advantages, profit-taking by early investors/market makers, regulatory uncertainty, and common behavioral biases (FOMO, herding, recency). The report recommends avoiding first-day purchases, waiting 30–90 days for stabilization, strict position sizing, fundamental due diligence, and monitoring token unlock schedules. The findings suggest structural market dynamics across exchanges—despite different listing criteria and stricter 2024 regulations—make first-day buying a high-risk strategy for traders.
Bearish
The report reinforces a bearish outlook for short-term trading around new listings. Historical and 2024 data show consistent ~70% drawdowns for first-day buyers across major exchanges, indicating that listing events create unsustainable spikes followed by sharp corrections. Short-term impact: increased selling pressure and volatility around listings, higher likelihood of quick reversals, and amplified risk for retail traders who buy into initial hype. Market makers and early holders often realize gains rapidly, leaving late entrants exposed. Long-term impact: while some projects will succeed, persistent structural issues—low liquidity for new tokens, concentrated ownership, and behavioral biases—mean new-listing performance will likely remain mixed and risky. Traders should expect elevated volatility and potential cascading sell-offs at token unlocks or sentiment shifts. This favors cautious strategies: avoid first-day entries, use smaller position sizes, wait for volume-supported consolidation, and trade with clear stop-loss rules. Parallels include ICO-era pump-and-dump dynamics and IPO initial pop then correction patterns—cryptocurrency markets show the same effect more intensely due to thinner liquidity and weaker disclosure.