Experts Say No Crypto Winter in 2026; Bitcoin Could Reach $150K–$200K
Grayscale and Amberdata analysts predict 2026 will not produce a crypto winter, forecasting renewed Bitcoin upside amid early volatility. Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl expects Bitcoin to surpass the recent $126,000 high in H1 2026, supported by institutional demand, ETF inflows and potential U.S. market-structure legislation. Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini allows for a short early dip — possibly below $67,000 — before a recovery that could lift Bitcoin to $150,000–$200,000 later in 2026. Key drivers cited include regulatory clarity, continued ETF and institutional inflows (roughly $50 billion since approvals), on-chain accumulation (over 1.2 million BTC unmoved >1 year) and macroeconomic policy responses to a potential credit squeeze. Analysts expect elevated volatility (40–50% in Q1) and higher futures open interest, creating trading opportunities on dips. Altcoins and Ethereum are seen as more dependent on legislative outcomes and could underperform Bitcoin if market-structure bills falter. Traders are advised to monitor regulatory developments, macro signals and futures positioning to time entries during anticipated early-year pullbacks.
Bullish
The consensus view from Grayscale and Amberdata is bullish for Bitcoin through 2026 despite short-term risks. Key bullish factors: expected regulatory clarity (a U.S. market-structure bill), substantial ETF and institutional inflows (~$50B since approvals), strong on-chain accumulation (1.2M BTC unmoved >1 year), and macro support if central banks counter a credit squeeze. Analysts still model significant near-term volatility — possible dip below $67k — which historically creates buying opportunities (e.g., post-2022 recovery where Bitcoin rose ~150% in nine months). Elevated futures open interest signals trader positioning for upside, amplifying moves once deleveraging ends. Altcoins face higher regulatory sensitivity and may lag if legislation falters, concentrating capital into Bitcoin. Short-term effect: increased volatility, potential liquidation-driven dips, and trading windows to buy BTC on weakness. Long-term effect: stronger institutional integration, higher price discovery and greater BTC dominance if regulatory progress continues. Overall, these drivers point to a bullish market bias, though execution risk (legislation delays, severe macro shock) could produce temporary bearish phases.