Nvidia Market Cap Leads Alphabet as Polymarket Odds Skew to June

Nvidia market cap climbed to about $4.9T, topping Alphabet by roughly $1T as AI hardware demand lifts data center optimism. In Polymarket “largest company” prediction markets, traders assign a high near-term edge to Nvidia: the June 30 contract sits near 91% YES. The signal flips sharply further out. By December 31, Nvidia’s odds drop to around 0.9% YES, suggesting expectations of competitive change within the next eight months. This creates headline-driven risk: the June 30 contract sees relatively low turnover (about $4,654 daily face value), while the December 31 contract is much more sensitive (about $275 can move it by ~5 points). Thin liquidity means larger orders could swing prices quickly. Key drivers to watch include potential US export restrictions for advanced chips, upcoming Nvidia updates around AI product momentum (CEO Jensen Huang’s next steps), and major moves from Apple and Microsoft. While this is a tech-sector risk appetite read-through rather than a direct crypto catalyst, falling late-year odds point to possible volatility spillovers into broader sentiment. For crypto traders, the Nvidia market cap narrative may matter mainly as a fast-moving proxy for AI/semis confidence.