US May Allow Nvidia H200 Chip Exports to China with 18‑Month Age Limit

The US Department of Commerce is reportedly preparing to permit exports of Nvidia’s high‑performance H200 AI chips to China under a controlled framework that would limit shipments to H200 units roughly 18 months old. The proposal, said to require presidential sign‑off, includes vetting of commercial buyers and a possible revenue‑sharing mechanism (reported ~15%). The move marks a significant partial rollback of prior export curbs and follows recent diplomatic thawing, but it clashes with bipartisan Congressional security concerns and proposed legislation such as the SAFE Chips Act that would block advanced AI chip exports for over two years. China has previously restricted purchases of Nvidia gear and accelerated domestic alternatives from firms including Alibaba and Huawei. Market response: Nvidia shares rose on the reports and AI/semiconductor equities stand to gain if access to China is restored, while policy volatility will likely increase. For crypto traders, easing US–China tech tensions tends to reduce macro uncertainty and can lift risk assets — potentially supporting large‑cap crypto like BTC and ETH and AI/computing‑linked tokens. Traders should expect a short‑term sentiment boost for tech and AI‑tied crypto tokens, higher Asian trading volumes, and renewed China narratives affecting Asian‑hour flows; medium‑term outcomes depend on final policy text, enforcement details, and any Congressional pushback.
Bullish
Easing of US export restrictions on Nvidia H200 chips is likely to reduce macro and geopolitical uncertainty that often depresses risk assets. The immediate market reaction — Nvidia share gains and a positive tilt in AI/semiconductor stocks — typically correlates with inflows into large‑cap crypto (BTC, ETH) during risk‑on episodes. Additionally, tokens tied to AI computing and decentralized rendering/compute marketplaces could see direct interest. Short term: likely bullish sentiment and higher volumes, especially in Asian trading hours. Medium term: the outlook is conditional — Congressional pushback, strict vetting, age‑limits, revenue‑sharing, or enforcement measures could reintroduce volatility and cap upside. If policy is finalized with tight controls, benefits are muted and episodic; if broader access resumes, sustained capital rotation into tech and correlated crypto could reinforce gains.